A week after Election Day, the balance of power in the House remains uncertain, with 212 seats in the GOP column, 204 in the Democratic column and 218 needed for a majority. Republicans — despite a worse-than-expected midterm — are still likely to win a majority, but Democrats cling to slim hopes with about 20 races undeclared. Here are five of the most interesting matches to watch. 13th District of California The race between the two candidates running for California’s 13th District is separated by just 84 ballots as of Monday afternoon with 61 percent of the vote. Republican businessman John Duarte leads by one-tenth of a percentage point over Democratic state Rep. Adam Gray. The two candidates are facing off for an open House seat in the Golden State’s Central Valley, which became available after Rep. Josh Harder (D) moved to run in a more left-leaning district. The Cook Political Report rated the seat as “bounce,” though the district became more favorable to Democrats after redistricting. But with ballots pending in both Democratic- and Republican-heavy counties, it’s unclear who will win. Merced and Stanislaus counties, which have both collapsed in favor of Gray, have more ballots to count than Madera and Fresno counties, which have voted for Duarte so far. Gray had an advantage over Duarte right out of the gate with voter registration — the district is 42.8 percent Democratic and 28.4 percent Republican, according to CalMatters. The district took President Biden over former President Trump in 2020, 54.3% to 43.4%. But the GOP has made inroads in the race despite early Democratic advantages. According to the Los Angeles Times, that could be a credit to Republican-leaning Latino voters and low Democratic voter turnout. 6th District of Arizona Another tight race is underway in Arizona’s 6th District, where Republican Juan Siscomani and Democrat Kirsten Engel are vying for the open seat. Siscomani, who was an aide to Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (D), led Engel, a former state senator and representative, by just 0.66 percentage points with 89 percent of the vote as of Monday afternoon. This translates into an advantage of 2,074 ballots. The Tucson-area race is tight, with Engel closing the gap between the two candidates. However, there are still a number of outstanding votes in counties that are overwhelmingly split for both candidates. If the Republicans win, they will have flipped the seat. It was previously held by Rep. Anna Kirkpatrick (D), who chose not to run for re-election this cycle. It became the 6th District after redistricting and is more favorable to Republicans than before. The Cook Political Report rated the seat “unlikely Republican”. 1st District of Arizona Incumbent Rep. David Schweikert (R) is fighting for his political life against Democrat Jevin Hodge, 28, who heads the Grand Canyon State’s oldest Head Start program. With 93 percent of the vote, Schweikert narrowly led Hodge by 0.26 points, or 894 ballots, as of Monday night. Hodge opened with a lead over Schweikert on Election Day, but the incumbent took the lead Sunday night. The Phoenix area includes Maricopa County, Arizona’s most populous county. Officials said they hope to have most of the votes counted by Tuesday. Mail-in ballots in Maricopa County go through a rigorous process before they are sent for sorting. About 80 percent of voters requested mail-in ballots in Maricopa County, according to the Washington Post. The district became more favorable to Democrats after the redistricting, and The Cook Political Report rated the seat as “cracked”. If Schweikert wins, he will secure his seventh term in Parliament. 6th District of Oregon The two candidates fighting in this district are separated by just 4,400 ballots with 85% of the votes counted. Democrat Andrea Salinas has secured 49.8 percent of the vote, slightly ahead of Republican Mike Erickson, who is at 47.9 percent. Constitution Party candidate Larry McFarland has 2.3 percent. There are, however, several pending ballots that could affect the outcome of the race. Washington and Clackamas counties — both of which have gone down in favor of Salinas thus far — have outstanding ballots, except for Marion and Polk counties, which favor Erickson. Counting in Oregon could take longer after the state changed its rules to allow ballots sealed on Election Day to be included in the tally. Before, the state only accepted ballots that arrived at polling stations by Election Day. Election officials will accept ballots with valid postmarks until Tuesday. This is a new congressional district drawn after Oregon gained a seat in the House due to its population growth. Colorado’s 3rd District It was one of the most closely watched contests since Election Day, when Democrat Adam Fries, a local businessman, opened up a commanding lead over incumbent Rep. Lauren Bobert (R). Bobert, a first-time congresswoman and staunch Trump supporter, edged out Fries shortly after Election Day and finally took the lead Thursday. Lummis: DeSantis is GOP leader Ro Khanna says Pelosi ‘deserves a chance to lead’ The incumbent currently leads her Democratic challenger by 1,122 ballots with more than 95 percent of the vote. The race, however, will likely undergo an automatic recount. A recount is triggered in Colorado if the final margin in the race is less than or equal to half a percentage point. Bobert currently leads by 0.34 points. A win for Frisch would be a major upset for Democrats and a symbolic move for the caucus, electing one of the most recognizable Republicans in the House GOP conference. Bobert, however, is likely to lock up her re-election. On Thursday, after the incumbent’s lead reached 1,136 votes, Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman tweeted that it would be “much harder to see her lose” after more ballots were counted from a Democratic stronghold.ISIan Swanson
