While the prime minister presented himself as a fresh start when he entered Number 10 two weeks ago, the fissures, anger and fire within the Conservative party have only partially subsided. This may yet change given the scale of the challenge ahead. Here are five of them… The statement of autumn The storm clouds are gathering. A rebellion spreads over taxes. Conservative MPs refused to put Mr Sunak in Downing Street in the summer – in part – because as chancellor he took Britain to a 70-year high. Mr. Sunak then settled without consulting them. Everything has changed in the interim, with Trussonomics causing debt costs to soar and the pound to rise, but at the same time, nothing has changed. And the Tory right is already reeling. On Thursday night, Ian Duncan Smith told Sky News that “it will be very worrying if we go overboard on tax rises because it is absolutely a fact that tax rises will make the recession deeper”. He believes the size of the black hole, which he stresses is based on predictions (which may be wrong), may be smaller than expected, particularly if energy costs fall. The papers have been speculating about tax rises on every front, from income to inheritance tax. When the latter was released at the weekend, one Tory MP told me: “You have to ask what’s the point of a Tory government anymore.” A quick Brexit deal for Northern Ireland This is a sleeper cell issue that could cause untold pain in Mr Sunak’s premiership if he gets it wrong. Some MPs believe there is a chance of a deal within weeks to revise the Northern Ireland Protocol – the deal between the UK and the EU preserves both the integrity of the EU’s single market and the lack of a hard border on the island of Ireland. US President Joe Biden has suggested that the deadline for a deal is the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement next April, and he is personally keen to resolve what he sees as a long-standing wound. In the fortnight since his inauguration, Mr Sunak has made a huge effort to mend relations with the French and American presidents. He was not instinctively a hardliner on the EU’s Brexit talks in Boris Johnson’s government. You can see the political pull of a deal for Mr. Sunak. But again, beware of hard Brexiteers. They – and some in Northern Ireland’s unionist community – fear that what will emerge is a slick deal to reduce controls that still leaves that part of the UK under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. But if that happens, what about Suella Braverman, the home secretary, Chris Heaton Harris, the Northern Ireland minister, and Steve Baker, a Northern Ireland minister, and the potential for rebellion on his right? Duncan Smith told Sky News that the EU was unable to do a decent deal with the UK and Mr Sunak would have to wait until the controversial legislation which gives the UK the unilateral ability not to implements the protocol. Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss never successfully took on the ERG wing of the Tory party: will Mr Sunak be different? Use Chrome browser for more accessible video player Analysis 4:15: “PM was not on form” Boris Johnson’s trial Forget ‘I’m A Celebrity’, the late autumn reality TV drama could be the Privileges Commission’s inquiry into Mr Johnson over whether the former prime minister’s remarks during partygate ‘appear to mislead the Parliament”. Although not officially confirmed, the plan was to televise parts of the hearings – in effect to allow viewers to watch the evidence for themselves in the hope of reaching the same conclusion as the panel of MPs chaired by Harriet Harman . This had a lot of potential to topple Mr. Sunak’s administration. The prime minister’s spokesman said this week that this government “takes our responsibilities to help the committee seriously” – a far cry from the approach taken when Mrs Truss was in power. Expect diaries, saved WhatsApp messages and testimonials to all be shared. Will MPs backing Boris Johnson ease up on Mr Sunak’s government’s active decision to be complicit in the investigation? Or will those who transferred their allegiance from Mr Johnson to Ms Truss – and are now in the desert – allow themselves to be stirred up in demonstrations? Read more: Has Rishi Sunak’s baptism of fire shown that opposition leaders make the best prime ministers? Mid-term elections and polls As this parliament enters its twilight years, Mr Sunak cannot avoid multiple potentially bruising electoral tests. The first pair were in seats that elected Labor MPs last time: on December 1 the city of Chester goes to the polls in a by-election to find a successor to Christian Matheson, who resigned following allegations of sexual misconduct, which denied. By-elections will also be held in Stretford and Urmston to find a replacement for Kate Green, the Labor MP who is stepping down to become deputy mayor of Manchester. But this will be a bit of a sweat for Mr Sunak as Labor is tipped to win. But then the party could deal with the self-inflicted wound inflicted by peers on two of Mr Johnson’s resignation honors list could trigger a by-election. Image: RIshi Sunak takes a dig at Sir Keir Starmer over Sir Gavin Williamson’s resignation at PMQs Nadine Dorries, the MP for Mid-Bedfordshire with a majority of 24,664 and Nigel Adams, the MP for Selby and Ainsty who has a majority of 20,137 could both cause a much more problematic election. The Tories’ margin of victory in 2019 in both was significant: but that means losses in these two very different parts of the county will be crushing. Rishi Sunak, Paul Dacre and The Blob This is niche – but high impact. Former Daily Mail editor Paul Dacre is expected to be included in Mr Johnson’s resignation peerage honors list. This will come despite the House of Lords nominations committee reportedly rejecting his nomination earlier in the year. However, it is up to Mr Sunak to ultimately push Mr Johnson’s recommendation against what Mr Dacre himself might call “the trickle”. Would he risk the potential criticism of being rejected by the official committee or risk the wrath of the Daily Mail by refusing?
