Taro Hama @ E-kamakura | Moment | Getty Images The South China Sea is a vital trade route connecting the main trade arteries in Southeast Asia, connecting waterways from Singapore and Malaysia to Indonesia, the Philippines and Taiwan. Coupled with abundant hydrocarbon reserves and marine life—the primary source of animal protein for the region’s dense population—this body of water is critical beyond its limits. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, an estimated $3.37 trillion worth, or 21% of all global trade, passed through the South China Sea in 2016. Territorially, there are seven claimants to the South China Sea: China, Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam. But to whom does the South China Sea matter most? Analysts list the top five countries, other than China, that are most dependent on the South China Sea.
Vietnam
Vietnam, home to 95.5 million people, saw its economy grow to $362.64 billion in 2021, according to World Bank data. “Vietnam occupies more than three thousand kilometers of coastline in the South China Sea and occupies the largest number of features in the Spratly Islands,” according to Euan Graham, Senior Fellow of the Shangri-La Dialogue for Asia-Pacific Security with the International Institute for Strategic . Studies. This photo taken on Aug. 19, 2022, shows fishermen sorting a fresh fish on Vietnam’s Ly Son offshore island. Nhac Nguyen | Afp | Getty Images “What makes it interesting is its geography in Southeast Asia, which allows for a continental or maritime orientation and creates pressure in both directions,” the military and geopolitical expert said. “At the grand strategic level, Vietnam is doubling down on its maritime strategy to become an export-dependent economy that depends on freedom of navigation for prosperity.” Graham said this was a reversal of Vietnam’s history in the last century, when it was land-based and relied on continental allies – mainly the Soviet Union and China. Vietnam was also mired in land conflicts with China and Cambodia at the time. Vietnam, which shares a border with China, has benefited from supply chain problems in China exacerbated by Beijing’s strict Covid-zero policy and supply surges. “The opportunity lies in the prosperity that exports and foreign investment have brought,” Graham said. “Organizations are re-orienting supply chains away from China and South Korea is now investing heavily in microchip production in Vietnam. This further benefits Vietnam by giving other countries a stake in its survival.”
Singapore
As the main sea link to markets in Europe, Asia and the Americas, the 105km long Singapore Strait sees around 1,000 ships pass through each day. Most discussions focus on resources like oil, gas and fisheries that everyone competes for — but “freedom of the seas is what keeps Singapore alive,” said Blake Herzinger, a civil defense expert in Indo- Peaceful. “Without the free South China Sea on the other side of Singapore, this becomes a different proposition for their value and national survival,” said the co-author of “Carrier Killer, China’s Anti-ship Ballistic Missiles and Theater of Operations.” at the beginning. 21st century.” Freedom of the sea is what keeps Singapore alive. Blake Herzinger Indo-Pacific civil defense expert With a population of 5.64 million, Singapore’s GDP is estimated at $337.5 billion in 2020, making it the 17th largest goods trading partner with the US, according to the Office of the US Trade Representative. “Although Singapore does not claim any maritime features of the South China Sea, it is located on the most critical sea lanes of communication (SLOCs) – the Singapore Strait and the beginning of the Malacca Strait,” said Charlie A. Brown, regional expert and awareness consultant in the shipping sector. Aerial view of fishing boats sailing in the South China Sea for fishing on August 16, 2022 in Yangjiang, Guangdong province of China. Liu Xiaoming | Visual China Group | Getty Images The tiny Southeast Asian nation depends heavily on free trade that passes safely through its country and adjacent waters. “Singapore’s leadership is clear that it is a state that is existentially dependent on free seas and the rules-based order. Without that, places like Singapore are in a lot of trouble.”
Indonesia
The Straits of Sunda and Lombok in Indonesia, along with the Straits of Malacca and Singapore, are important gateways to the South China Sea. Indonesia’s Natuna Archipelago islands overlap China’s nine-dash line — a set of line segments on maps that accompany Chinese territorial claims. “Indonesia is highly dependent on the resources of the Natuna North Sea [within the South China Sea]”, said Brown, adding that a significant commercial traffic passes through its waters. “Although Indonesia states that there are no territorial disputes with China, this is a rhetorical claim contrary to reality,” he added. China has pushed claimant states such as Vietnam out of traditional fishing waters and others in the South China Sea, causing excessive overfishing. Blake Herzinger Indo-Pacific civil defense expert Herzinger stressed that, like the other claimant states, Indonesia’s population of 280 million relies heavily on fish for food security. Food insecurity in the South China Sea can quickly turn into national instability in Southeast Asia, Herzinger said. “One underrated aspect is all the seasonal fishing bans that China patrols and has in the East China Sea,” he said. “Despite claiming more than half of the South China Sea, China has pushed claimant states such as Vietnam out of traditional fishing waters and more into the South China Sea, causing excessive overfishing.” Brown added that this is especially true for Vietnamese fishermen “who go into Malaysian and Indonesian waters, in part because China pushes them out of their own waters.” What happens when fish stocks run out? “If this happens, countries will immediately be thrown into food insecurity,” the defense policy expert warned. “And when that happens, it creates government insecurity, where hungry people will not go after China but rather the central government.” Southeast Asia’s largest economy had an estimated GDP of nearly $1.2 trillion in 2021, according to World Bank data.
Japan
About 42 percent of Japan’s maritime trade passes through the South China Sea each year, according to the Association of Accredited Public Policy Advocates in the European Union. By 2020, Japan was the world’s largest buyer of liquefied natural gas, importing nearly 74.5 million tons. Brown argued that because of Japan’s oil imports from the Persian Gulf region, “they have a long-standing interest in the vulnerability of sea lanes that goes back well before World War II.” “In the modern era, their regional activities support capacity building on issues such as maritime safety and security, protection of resources and infrastructure, and freedom of navigation with countries bordering the South China Sea,” Brown added. A US Amphibious Assault Vehicle (AAV) passes the Philippine Navy frigate Ramon Alcaraz during disembarkation as part of the annual Philippine-US joint military exercise at the Philippine Naval Training Camp Beach in San Antonio, Zambales province northwest of Manila on May 9, 2018. Ted Aljibe | Afp | Getty Images Japan has also sent strong messages to China. Japan’s largest newspaper, the Yomiuri Shimbun, reported that Japanese navy destroyers have repeatedly passed through the South China Sea near artificial islands and reefs claimed by Beijing. An unnamed senior defense ministry official was quoted as saying by the newspaper that the maritime patrols were intended to “warn China, which is distorting international law, to protect freedom of navigation and law and order at sea.” These operations under the Naval Self-Defense Force began in March last year, Yomiuri Shimbun said. On July 22, the Japanese government released Japan’s Defense White Paper 2022, accusing China of trying to unilaterally change the status quo in the East and South China Seas. China’s Ministry of National Defense responded with a sharp rebuke, accusing the document of making “irresponsible remarks.”
South Korea
South Korea is “deliberately quiet on the South China Sea” as it wants to “maintain favor with China,” Graham said, citing Seoul’s primary focus on the North Korea issue.
“Geographically, compared to Japan, it is more difficult to divert trade,” he said. “In recognition of being a trading nation and to secure supply lines, including its investment in Vietnam, South Korea has an active ocean navy.”
Asia’s fourth-largest economy — estimated to be about $1.8 trillion in 2021 — is economically more dependent on energy imports from Japan, according to Graham.
As the world’s 8th largest energy consumer, South Korea imports nearly 92.8% of its energy and natural resource consumption, according to government data. In 2021, South Korea spent $137.2 billion on energy imports, equivalent to nearly 22.3% of its total imports.
According to data from the US Energy Information Administration, the Middle East accounted for 69% of South Korea’s crude oil imports in 2019, up from more than 80% before 2018.
As the majority of South Korea’s crude oil imports pass through the South China Sea, its current strategic importance to national security cannot be understated.
“With the launch in June 2022 of China’s domestic aircraft carrier Fujian – named after the province closest to Taiwan – sovereignty and naval supremacy in the Pacific has not been challenged like this since World War II” , Brown said.
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