Some days you can look at multiple factors to determine why a team wins or loses. You can spend hours talking about what to do or how to do it, but when it comes to the Edmonton Oilers looking for success against the Los Angeles Kings, there is one constant that guarantees them success: Score the first goal. Over the last five seasons, including the playoffs, the Oilers are undefeated when scoring first against the Kings. In 16 regular season games the Oilers are 7-0 when scoring first. They are 3-6 when LA scores first. In seven playoff games Edmonton was 4-0 when they lit the lamp first and were 0-3 when LA scored first. They are 11-0 when scoring first and 3-9 when LA scores first. It seems pretty clear what gives the Oilers the best chance to win. While they are perfect against the Kings when they score first, over the past five seasons and 16 games this season, Edmonton is noticeably better against every team when they score first. They are 132-38-13 when scoring first and 69-118-19 when allowing the first goal. They score first and have a 0.721 win%, but give up the first goal and only have a 0.335 win%. When the Oilers score first, other teams feel the need to open up the game a little more, and that plays right into the Oilers’ hands because the Oilers have the two most prolific scorers in the league since the start of the 2017-18 season. Connor McDavid has 208 goals and 581 points in 376 games, while Leon Draisaitl is second in points with 213 goals and 507 points. Nathan MacKinnon is third with 466 points, followed by Patrick Kane and Artemi Panarin on 240. It’s a significant advantage to have the two most dangerous offensive players in the game on your side when the opposition needs to get more chances or try to press offensively . Scoring first isn’t easy, of course, but even the worst teams in the league win more often when they score first. The Detroit Red Wings are collectively the worst team in the NHL since 2017-18 with a record of 137-200-52. They have only won 35.2% of their games. But when they scored first, they were 92-55-29 with a 0.523W%. The Oilers have the 15th most wins over that span, but have the 10th best winning percentage when scoring first. They won 51.6% of their overall games, but won 72.1% of the games they scored first. Edmonton has one of the biggest increases in W% when scoring first, compared to overall w%. Team’s W% overall SF W% DIFF Team’s W% overall SF W% DIFF TV 65.7 79.9 14.2 NYI 51.6 68.5 16.9 BOS 62.1 74.2 12.1 NYR 48.8 66.1 17.3 TOR 58.8 75.5 16.7 CBJ 47.8 62.6 14.8 LVK 58.7 75.7 17 THE 46.2 68.6 22.4 COL 58.5 75.9 17.4 SJ 45.8 62.1 16.3 WSH 57.8 72.7 14.9 PHI 45.7 63.7 18 CAR 56.9 75 18.1 VAN 43.8 66.9 23.1 PIT 56.8 71.4 15.2 NJ 41.8 55.2 13.4 FLO 56.5 70 13.5 PER 41.3 58.9 17.6 SOE 56.3 77 20.7 CHI 41 60.1 19.1 WPG 55.2 69.5 14.3 MTL 40.6 58.3 17.7 STL 55 70.7 15.7 ARI 40.3 57.6 17.3 MIN 54.7 73.5 18.8 OTT 36.8 53.5 16.7 CGY 53.2 71.9 18.7 BUF 36.7 56.7 20 EDM 51.6 72.1 20.5 SEA 35.7 53.8 18.1 DAL 51.6 70.4 18.8 THE 35.2 52.3 17.1 Vancouver and Los Angeles had the biggest improvements in scoring first, followed by Nashville and Edmonton. For more than five years the Oilers have won at a 20% higher percentage when scoring first. So are the Kings, so scoring first tonight, based on the last 780 games for these two teams, will be a major advantage. Edmonton needs to be ready from the first down. Too often recently they rely on their goaltenders to keep them in for the first 10 minutes before finding their skating legs. That can’t happen tonight.
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RNH – McDavid – PuljujarviFoegele – Draisaitl – HymanJanmark – McLeod – KostinHolloway – Shore – Ryan Nurse – CeciKulak – BouchardMurray – BarrieSkinner The only change to the lineup is Ryan Murray for Markus Niemelainen. Kailer Yamamoto is not yet ready to play. If he skates tomorrow, he could be an option for Saturday. Stuart Skinner will start back-to-back games for the first time this season. His .932Sv% is tied for third-best in the NHL among goaltenders who have started at least five games. If he doesn’t struggle, I’d consider starting him on Saturday against Las Vegas. Kings… Kempe – Kopitar – VilardiMoore – Danault – ArvidssonFiala – Kupari – GrundstromAnderson-Dolan – Lizotte – Kaliyev Anderson – DoughtyDurzi – RoyEdler – WalkerPetersen Cal Petersen starts for LA. It’s been a tough year. He has allowed 22 goals in six starts and has an ugly .867Sv% and minus 1.55 goals-against-expectation is 63rd among 65 goaltenders. I’m interested to see if the Oilers go after Mickey Anderson for Leon Draisaitl in the playoffs last year. In case you forgot here is the video. Edmonton wasn’t going to do anything in the playoffs, and it might not tonight, but it’s something to keep an eye on. Klim Kostin wasn’t here last year, but if he wants to endear himself to his teammates, he’ll have to follow Anderson. The challenge for the Oilers is that they don’t have many tough players in the lineup. I don’t see Anderson obliging the Nurse, so it would have to be someone else. MATCH DAY PREDICTION: The Oilers win for the 10th time in their last 12 home games against the Kings in a 4-1 victory. OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Draisaitl and McDavid extend their point streaks to 12 and 11 games, respectively. NO OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Ryan McLeod scores his first career goal against the Kings and his first goal in 11 games.
