The months-long Ukrainian offensive to retake the city of Kherson, the only provincial capital that has been under Russian control since the early days of the invasion, is winding down. The fall of the city would bring another humiliation to Moscow after a series of battlefield defeats and other setbacks. Here’s a look at what’s going on and why Kherson is such an important city for both sides.
Why is the city such a prize?
Kherson, which had a pre-war population of 280,000, is the only regional capital to be captured by Russian forces. The city and surrounding areas fell into Moscow’s hands in the first days of the war as Russian troops quickly pushed their offensive north from the Crimean peninsula – the region illegally annexed by the Kremlin in 2014. Its loss was a major blow to Ukraine due to its location on the Dnipro River near the mouth of the Black Sea and its role as a major industrial center. Ukrainian resistance fighters have been challenging Russian troops for control of the city ever since, with acts of sabotage and assassinations of officials appointed by Moscow. Kherson is also at a point where Ukraine can cut off fresh water from the Dnipro to Crimea. Kyiv blocked these vital supplies after annexing the Crimean peninsula, and Putin cited the need to restore them as a reason behind his decision to invade Ukraine. Serhii Kalko shows a house burned by Russian soldiers during an occupation in the village of Blahodatne, recaptured by Ukrainian forces a day ago, in Ukraine’s Kherson region, Friday. (Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters)
what is happening now
In the past 24 hours, Ukrainian troops have made gains northwest, west and northeast of the city of Kherson, advancing as much as seven kilometers in some areas, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank. “The Russians have moved into positions they hope will be easier to defend. Ukraine will have to decide if, when and how to keep pushing,” said Olga Oliker, Europe and Central Asia director at the International Crisis Group . “But Ukraine seems on the verge of taking it back… and that’s very good news for Mykolayiv, which Russia will now have a much harder time bombing. It’s a serious Ukrainian advance.” In an afternoon video address on Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called it a “historic day” and said “we are taking back the south of the country, we are taking back Kherson.” “As of now, our defenders are on the outskirts of the city and we are very close to the entrance. But special units are already in the city,” he said. In video obtained by Reuters and released on Friday, people were seen cheering and celebrating Ukrainian soldiers in Kherson’s Freedom Square. WATCHES | The people of Kherson greet the Ukrainian troops with joy:
Ukrainian soldiers were welcomed with joy in Kherson
Residents cheer the arrival of Ukrainian troops in Kherson’s Freedom Square after Russia abandoned the only regional capital it had seized since the start of the conflict.
What did the Ukrainian troops find?
Ukraine-appointed Kherson regional official Serhii Khlan said that as Russia withdrew its troops from the western bank of the river that divides the region, they left debris in their wake, destroying key infrastructure, including power plants and bridges. “Everything will have to be rebuilt,” he said Friday in a video interview. “During their escape, they blew up everything, everything that could prevent it [Ukrainian] payment in advance.” Khlan advised civilians to stay indoors and said the humanitarian situation was complicated, with power outages and communications severely limited. Evacuees from Kherson walk from a bus upon arrival in Dzhankoi, Crimea, on Thursday. Russian authorities have encouraged Kherson residents to leave in recent days, warning of a major Ukrainian counterattack. (The Associated Press)
What does the Kremlin say?
The Kremlin remained defiant on Friday, insisting that developments on the battlefield in the Kherson region are in no way an embarrassment for Putin. Fearing such a large Ukrainian counterattack, the regional administration in Kherson installed by the Kremlin reportedly relocated at least 70,000 residents earlier this month.
What would the loss of Kherson mean for Russia?
A retreat from Kherson and other areas on the west bank of the Dnipro would dash Russian hopes of pushing an offensive west toward Mykolayiv and Odessa to cut off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea. Moscow also hoped to build a land corridor to Moldova’s breakaway Transnistria region, home to a major Russian military base. “The loss of Kherson will turn all these southern dreams from the Kremlin into dust,” said Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov. “Kherson is the key to the entire southern region, which will allow Ukraine to target key supply routes for Russian forces. The Russians will try to maintain control over it using all means.” Ukrainian soldiers drive a 2S7 Pion self-propelled gun near a front line in the Kherson region on Wednesday. (Viacheslav Ratynskyi/Reuters)
What would the recapture of Kherson mean for Ukraine?
For Ukraine, capturing Kherson would set the stage for retaking the Russian-held part of the Zaporizhzhia region and other areas to the south, and eventually pushing back into Crimea. Regaining control of Kherson would also mean Kyiv could cut off water to Crimea again. “After the recapture of Kherson, the Russians will again have problems with fresh water in Crimea,” Zhdanov added.
What will China think?
Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the independent Kyiv-based Penta Center think tank, noted that control of the Kherson region and other southern regions was a big prize for Russia, and losing them would have painful consequences for Putin at home and abroad . “If the Russians leave Kherson, the Kremlin will face another wave of fierce criticism of the military command and the authorities in general from ultra-patriotic circles,” Fesenko said, adding that the city’s fall would further demoralize Russia’s armed forces and possibly fuel opposition to the mobilization effort. He also said that China and India would see the fall of Kherson as a sign of Kremlin weakness. “Putin will face reputational losses not only within the country, but also in the eyes of China, and this could be particularly dangerous for the Kremlin,” Fesenko said.
