“I would say young people have definitely been influential in stemming this tide,” said Ruby Bell Booth, elections coordinator for the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE). CIRCLE is an independent research organization at Tufts University that focuses on youth civic engagement and conducts extensive research on youth engagement. “I don’t think we can say that young people are the only reason,” he said. “But I think young people absolutely had a role in preventing this red tide from materializing as predicted.” The results continue to fluctuate, but Republicans are inching closer to a slim majority in the House. Control of the Senate continues to hinge on some tight races. However, Republicans were predicted to have a much stronger showing.

Gen Z leaned blue, exit polls show

Many observers, including Republicans and conservatives, are blaming the poor results on a backlash against former President Donald Trump and the controversial candidates he supported who lost their respective races. But young people may also have played a factor in the results, some analysts say. “It’s actually been the same story for three cycles now. When Gen Z entered the ranks of young American voters in 2018, we saw them have a significant impact in the 2018 midterm elections,” said John Della Volpe, director of polling at The Politico Institute at Harvard’s Kennedy School, told NPR in an interview. “We saw a similar result in 2020. So now, for the third straight election cycle, younger Americans have made the difference state by state.” One thing I already know.
If not for under 30 voters … tonight WOULD be a red wave. CNN National House Exit Poll R+ 13 65+R+ 11 45 -64 D +2 30-44D +28 18-29 —@dellavolpe Early estimates have adjusted 18- to 29-year-olds to make up about 12 percent of the total vote this election, which is similar to the 2018 midterm elections at 13 percent. However, CIRCLE estimated that 27 percent of young people voted, the second-highest youth voter turnout in nearly three decades. But those votes often favored Democratic candidates by larger margins than the rest of the country, Bell Booth said. And in some key matches, they may have made the difference. Voters wait in line at Austin Oaks Church during the 2022 US midterm elections in Austin, Texas, on November 8. (Nuri Vallbona/Reuters) For example, in the tight Pennsylvania Senate race between Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz, CIRCLE estimated that youth contributed “a significant part” of Fetterman’s margin over Oz. They estimated that 18-29-year-olds favored Fetterman 70% to 28%, and that young voters got him 120,000 votes — more than half his margin of victory, about 220,000 votes. In the Wisconsin governor’s race, CIRCLE estimated that 79,000 young voters chose Democratic incumbent Rep. Tony Evers, who defeated Republican Tim Michels by just 89,000 votes. And in Kansas, new voters, who made up 14 percent of the electorate, backed Democrat Laura Kelly for governor by 11 points, casting 11,000 clear votes that powered her to a 15,000-vote victory over her Republican challenger, according to CIRCLE . “Because of their strong preference for Democratic candidates in these races, youth gave those candidates their strongest base of support,” CIRCLE said in its report. WATCHES | John Fetterman beat Dr. Oz in Senate primary race:

Fetterman’s loss to Trump-endorsed Oz was Pennsylvania’s surprise election

Election watchers weren’t expecting a result in the closely contested Pennsylvania Senate race on election night, so when the networks called the race for John Fetterman around 1:30 a.m., it came as a surprise. To make these estimates, CIRCLE relied on exit poll data. Taking youth share and youth choice data provided by AP VoteCast, they calculated how many young people voted for each candidate. But data scientist David Schor cautioned against using exit polls to establish that it was the youth vote that saved Democrats these midterms. “There is a very large pattern of exit polls getting these key questions wrong,” he said. “The reality about exit polls is that most people don’t answer them.” “I think academics after several months, they can do what they can to try to make them more compatible with external data sources,” he said. “Exit polls have a very poor track record of answering these kinds of composition questions.”