Those fears eased slightly as the Republican Party slipped in the polls on November 8, disappointing predictions of a “red wave” at the polls. Voters lost closely watched contests in swing states and failed to gain new ground in about 95 percent of national races, according to an analysis by United States United Action, an organization that tracks races with voter voters on the ballot. On Monday, President Joe Biden hailed the midterm results as a “robust rejection of negative elections at every level.” Speaking to reporters ahead of this week’s Group of 20 (G20) summit in Indonesia, Biden described the result as a testament to the strength of democratic institutions. “What this election has shown is that there is a deep and unwavering commitment in America to preserving and protecting and defending democracy,” he said. In the Nov. 8 midterm elections, election naysayers competed in races at nearly every level of government. The race for control of the US Senate, for example, came down to battleground states like Nevada and Arizona, where suffragettes like Adam Laxalt and Blake Masters narrowly lost to their Democratic rivals. But just as important were state and local races that affect voter access and have the potential to shape the outcome of presidential elections in swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Arizona. Such candidates often espoused a dark and conspiratorial view of the electoral process they would undertake to help oversee. Jim Marchand, a Republican candidate for secretary of state in Nevada, claimed in a podcast that the state hasn’t had a real election since 2006 and that the delegates were “installed by a deep state thief.” Arizona’s gubernatorial race was one of the highest-profile contests, with outspoken Republican Kari Lake narrowly losing to Democrat Katie Hobbs. It took almost a week to count the ballots. Lake had made the false claims that the 2020 election had been stolen as a cornerstone of her campaign. Lake didn’t admit it when the results were announced, instead tweeting, “Arizonas know BS when they see it.” Such candidates posed an unusual dilemma for the US political system: What if election officials used their positions to undermine public faith in the legitimacy of elections? “One thing is clear: American voters came together to defend democracy in this election. In most places, we’ve seen voters decisively reject suffragists who want power over their votes,” Joanna Lydgate, executive director of United States Action, told Al Jazeera in a statement shared by email. “In this way, the denial of elections will continue to be a threat and we must remain vigilant for 2024.”
Sowing doubt
The current trend toward election denial was reinforced when former President Trump spread false claims that the 2020 election had been stolen through “mass fraud” and “rigged elections,” pressuring officials to overturn the will of the voters. These claims were dismissed in court for lack of evidence. Republican election officials such as Brad Raffensperger of Georgia also assured voters that the election results were valid and that allegations of rampant fraud were unfounded. However, election denial has become widespread among Republican voters and officials. A Monmouth University poll in late September found that 61 percent of Republican voters doubted the integrity of the 2020 election. The analysis from the Brookings Institution also noted that key states such as Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania had relatively high concentrations of negative voters in the midterm elections, compared to similarly populous but left-leaning states such as New York and California. Because elections are overseen at the state level in the US, political figures such as governors, secretaries and attorneys general have different levels of responsibility for what happens at the polls. In Arizona, for example, the Secretary of State is responsible for certifying election results. But in Nevada, the Secretary of State does not have that responsibility. It may, however, push counties to enact policies that affect voter access. Across the country, far-right candidates have run for such positions, often with Trump’s support after he embraced his fraud allegations. Doug Mastriano, a Trump-backed Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate, said the state’s 2020 presidential vote should not have been certified and promised to appoint a secretary of state who shared that belief. Mark Finchem, a Republican running for secretary of state in Arizona, has introduced legislation to void the state’s ballots long after the 2020 election is held. He has also called for hand-counting of ballots, a method experts say it is more error prone and less efficient. In Michigan, Christina Karamo, the Republican nominee for secretary of state, filed a lawsuit seeking to block the counting of tens of thousands of ballots by the city of Detroit in the midterm elections, alleging fraud. Such candidates have also promised to roll back measures aimed at making it easier to vote, such as mail-in ballots, which Trump has portrayed as illegal and prone to fraud. Mastriano, Finchem and Karamo all lost their clans, and a judge dismissed Karamo’s lawsuit as “untenable,” chastising her for failing to provide “every piece of evidence” for her claims. Marchant, seen as an architect of the push for naysayers to run for secretary of state in swing states, also lost his race in Nevada. Such defeats have drawn a collective sigh of relief from election experts and academics, who say unsubstantiated allegations of electoral corruption can undermine faith in democracy. “The popularity of these claims among Republican voters is troubling, but we haven’t seen success in many battleground states,” Thad Kusher, a political science professor at the University of California, San Diego, told Al Jazeera. “In 2024, that means elections in swing states will be overseen by relatively equal people.” Kousser sees another cause for celebration: Many of the election’s staunchest naysayers are trailing by significant margins. Both Karamo and Mastriano lost by more than 14 points.
A constant threat
But in western states like Arizona and Nevada, some of the denialists posted strong results, with margins thin enough to open the door to baseless claims that the election there had been “stolen.” In Arizona, Finchem and Lake seized on technical issues with voting machines in Maricopa County to promote false claims of election day fraud. Officials apologized for the inconvenience and promised that every vote would be counted. “Brand New Tabulating Machines.” If this is what the brand new gives us what are the old machines doing? Go vote and don’t let the Marxists disenfranchise you. Double check it and make sure the machine is counting your vote correctly. #VoteFinchem — Mark Finchem #JustFollowTheLaw VoteFinchem.com (@RealMarkFinchem) November 8, 2022 The situation in Maricopa County was already very flammable. Conspiracy theories about voter fraud have led to an influx of death threats and harassment against election officials, pushing some out of their jobs altogether, according to a Reuters report. One message received over the summer said election workers would be tied to cars and dragged through the streets. In October, the US Department of Justice expressed concern about voter intimidation after reports of armed men in Arizona attending outdoor polls. On Election Day, Trump joined Lake and Finchem in spreading allegations of fraud. “Here we go again?” Trump told the website Truth Social. “The world won’t take it!!” Such comments from powerful figures in the Republican Party have led democracy advocates to warn against premature celebrations. Opponents won strong midterm races in largely Republican-leaning states, including at least five governorships and secretary of state races in places like Indiana and Wyoming. “Our democracy has withstood a major test, and that’s because of the voters,” Lydgate of United States Action said in a statement. “But we have to remember that the election denial movement is not going anywhere as we look to 2024. This is an ongoing threat.”
