The reality looked very different early Wednesday. Instead of a wholesale rejection of President Joe Biden and his party, the results were much more mixed as returns from Tuesday’s midterms rolled in. Many incumbent Democrats have proven surprisingly resilient, exceeding their own party’s expectations. Meanwhile, Democrat John Fetterman won an open Senate seat currently held by the GOP, while other key races that will determine control of the chamber remain too early to be played. “When you wake up tomorrow, we’ll be in the majority and Nancy Pelosi will be in the minority,” House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy predicted early Wednesday. He might be right. But it appeared that potential Republican gains would come on far less favorable terms than expected. Here are some facts from this year’s election:
TO BE CONTINUED …
Republicans hoped for elimination. They didn’t get it. After Democrats won several hard-fought victories in swing districts, such as Abigail Spanberger’s VP in Virginia, the sweeps that many Republicans predicted had yet to materialize early Wednesday. Meanwhile, the fate of Democrats who had been confined to the Senate was unclear. Fetterman defeated Dr. Mehmet Oz for a critical Pennsylvania Senate seat vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Pat Tomei. Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and former NFL star Herschel Walker, a Republican, were locked in a close race in Georgia. The Wisconsin race between Republican Sen. Ron Johnson and Democrat Mandela Barnes was very close. And the outcome of the remaining two seats that will determine which party holds the Senate majority — Arizona and Nevada — may not be known for days because both states conduct elections in part by mail-in ballots, which take a long time to complete. to be measured. Stay tuned.
HISTORY LESSON
It’s called history for a reason. The party that celebrates a White House victory usually mourns a defeat in the midterms two years later. Add to this historical pattern an economy plagued by inflation and recession, create fears about crime, and the result is almost certain. For Biden and House Democrats, the chance of retaining power in the lower chamber of Congress was always slim. Republicans expected to win enough seats to retake the majority. If successful, which was not immediately clear Wednesday morning, they also have plans to neuter Biden’s agenda for the next two years. Since 1906, there have been only three midterms in which the incumbent president’s party won seats in the House: 1934 when the country was struggling with a depression, 1998 when the U.S. was buoyed by a booming economy, and 2002 when President George W. Bush enjoyed a high approval rating amid a national sense of unity following the 9/11 attacks.
IS FLORIDA STILL A SWING STATE?
Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio, both Republicans, offer the latest evidence that Florida is getting redder. The two scored early re-elections Tuesday, both winning Miami-Dade County, which Democrat Hillary Clinton carried by 29 percentage points in 2016. Florida was a classic battleground. Twice he helped propel Barack Obama to the White House. But the state, where registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans in 2020, has shifted increasingly to the right. That’s because of the GOP’s influx of Hispanic voters, as well as an influx of new residents, including many retirees, who are drawn to the lack of income tax as well as the sunny weather. “Democrats really need to think about how they’re going to rebuild there. The Obama coalition is gone,” said Carlos Curbelo, a Republican former congressman who called Florida “off the map for the foreseeable future” for Democrats. DeSantis won the governor’s office in 2018 by only about 30,000 votes. On Tuesday, he overturned at least six counties he lost that year. Biden carried the same counties just two years ago. Some Democrats blamed some of Tuesday’s losses on a lack of investment from their party. “This is what happens when national Democrats decide not to spend money in the state,” said Greg Goddard, a Florida Democratic fundraising consultant who raised money for Rubio’s defeated challenge from Rep. Val Demings. “The road to Democrats winning future presidential elections is very slim if you don’t plan to spend in Florida
WAS IT A “RED WAVE” OR A RIPPLE?
Whether a red wave will bring Republicans is not likely to be known for days or weeks, as states that conduct their elections primarily by mail, such as California, continue to count votes. One thing’s for sure: It’s unlikely to match the 2010 tea party surge, which picked up 63 seats, or the Newt Gingrich-led House takeover in 1994, which unseated 54 Democrats and overturned GOP control of first time since the presidency. by Dwight Eisenhower. One reason it won’t happen? There just aren’t that many competitive positions. The end result? Much less interest in compromise and more gridlock in the halls of Congress.
WHAT DO THE PEOPLE WANT?
Gingrich’s “Contract with America” was celebrated as the cornerstone of the 1994 Republican takeover of the House for offering a specific list of policies the GOP would pursue if elected. Now Republicans are much more careful about their targets. “That’s a very good question. And I’ll let you know when we get it back,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell told reporters in January. McCarthy has proposed a “Pledge to America,” a list of priorities that fits on a pocket-sized card he carries that is heavy on slogans and light on details. Both may be trying to avoid the plight of Gingrich, whose “Contract with America” became a liability when Republicans failed to implement it. House Republicans have said they plan to investigate Biden and his administration. They also called for a renewed focus on fiscal restraint, cracking down on illegal immigration at the southern border and increasing domestic energy production. Many of these may not matter. After all, Biden has veto power.
THE MOST EXPENSIVE MEANS
The 2022 election is set to cost $16.7 billion at the state and federal level, making it the most expensive midterm election ever, according to the nonpartisan OpenSecrets. For perspective: The showdowns will nearly double the cost of the 2010 midterm elections, more than double the 2014 midterm elections and reach roughly the gross domestic product of Mongolia in 2022. At least $1.1 billion given at the federal level so far this election season has come from a small group of donors, many of whom have favored conservative causes. “When you look at the top 25 individual donors, conservative donors far outnumber liberal donors by $200 million,” said Brendan Glavin, senior data analyst for OpenSecrets. “There’s a big bias.” Tech billionaire Peter Thiel ($32.6 million), shipping magnate Richard Uihlein ($80.7 million), hedge fund manager Ken Griffin ($68.5 million) and Timothy Mellon, heir to a Gilded Age fortune who gave $40 million, is among the top conservative donors. On the liberal side, hedge fund founder George Soros gave the most ($128 million), though much of it has yet to be spent. Sam Bankman Fried, a liberal 30-year-old cryptocurrency billionaire, gave $39.8 million.
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