Alberta Premier Danielle Smith secured a seat in the provincial legislature after winning a by-election, although the UCP leader lost ground to her party in what is seen as a staunchly conservative seat and received fewer votes than her NDP rival in the urban district area in Medicine Hat. Ms. Smith was elected Tuesday in Brooks-Medicine Hat, a predominantly rural riding in southeastern Alberta, after garnering 54.5 percent of the vote. There was little doubt she would win the race – the previous UCP MLA won with 61 per cent in the 2019 general election – but Ms Smith’s slippage over her four rivals comes with a caveat. “It’s been a boom, but it’s all about expectations,” said Janet Brown, a political pollster. “We expected it to be an even bigger explosion.” Gary Mason: The disappointing populism of Danielle Smith’s political plan Marsha Lederman: Danielle Smith, there are a few people I’d like you to meet Experts caution against using by-elections, especially those with low voter turnout, to predict what might happen in the next general election. but political players still mine the results for narrative nuggets. Ms. Smith crushed her rivals in some rural areas, but the NDP outscored her in the part of the constituency that covers Medicine Hat, a mid-sized city with strong ties to the natural gas industry. Recent polling suggests the UCP is trailing the NDP in Calgary and could also risk losing seats in smaller urban communities in the next election. The results in Brooks-Medicine Hat provide further evidence that city voters may be uncomfortable with Ms. Smith. About 37 per cent of eligible voters in Brooks-Medicine Hat cast ballots Tuesday, according to preliminary results from Elections Alberta. Ms Smith won with 54.5 per cent support, while Gwendolyn Dirk of the New Democratic Party came in second with 26.7 per cent. Alberta Party leader Barry Morisita came in third with 16.5 per cent. Mr. Morishita is the former mayor of Brooks, giving the party a candidate with name recognition it otherwise wouldn’t have. Ms. Dirk, a former educator, was strongest in Medicine Hat, where she received 1,719 of the votes, or about 44 percent. compared to Ms. Smith’s 1,591, or 41 percent. These totals do not include advanced or special ballots. Former UCP MLA Michaela Frey captured 55 percent of the vote in the riding of Medicine Hat in the 2019 election, compared to 32 percent for the NDP. NDP Leader Rachel Notley cheered Ms. Dirk’s showing and said that while her party was hammered in provincial Alberta in 2019, she is “cautiously optimistic” that it can make inroads in communities outside of Calgary and Edmonton next countywide vote, scheduled for May 2023. “We are making significant progress in rural Alberta,” Ms. Notley told reporters Wednesday. “The trends are going in the right direction.” While the NDP held a narrow advantage in Medicine Hat, Ms. Smith dominated the riding’s rural areas, including areas where she had 80 per cent support, according to Elections Alberta. “This is rock star territory,” noted Ms. Brown, the pollster. Deirdre Mitchell-MacLean, a political commentator based in Strathmore, said that while the UCP can point to the by-election as proof that it is the strongest party, the losers can use the results to bolster their claims that they are a competitive choice in 2023 general election. “It’s not a decisive victory,” Ms Mitchell-MacLean said. “It actually plays better for the NDP, it plays better for the Alberta Party, to say, ‘We can do this.’ The Alberta Party, which bills itself as a centrist alternative to Alberta’s two mainstream political organizations, has no seat in the legislature. Ms. Frey resigned as MLA for Brooks-Medicine Hat the day after Ms. Smith won the UCP leadership contest in early October, setting up an opportunity for a by-election. Ms. Smith said she chose the spot because her values and political priorities align better with rural Alberta. Meanwhile, the Premier has refused to call a simultaneous by-election in Calgary-Elbow, which former UCP cabinet minister Doug Schweitzer quit in late August. Ms Smith, in her victory speech on Tuesday afternoon, said winning the by-elections was just the beginning. “This is our statement that Alberta is worth fighting for,” Ms. Smith told supporters in Medicine Hat. “And make no mistake: From what you saw from the results today, we certainly have a fight ahead of us.” He reiterated that affordability, health care and the economy are priorities for the UCP heading into next year’s general election. The NDP has identified many of the same priorities.
