The balance of power in the House currently stands at 211 Republicans and 201 Democrats — but, operationally, it is more closely divided. The list of open races includes a contest in California where both general election candidates are Democrats. And the distribution of the dozen or so races where one party is heavily favored — but where the AP hasn’t made a call — adds seven more seats to the Democratic tally and four races to the Republicans. That would give Republicans 215 seats, just three seats short of a majority, while Democrats would be eight seats short. But with 10 seats up for grabs — six with Republicans ahead and four with Democrats ahead — both parties still have a shot, though the GOP is still favored. Here’s a district-by-district breakdown of the uncalled games as of Saturday afternoon and what could happen next:
UP-FOR-GRAB MATCHES — 10 TOTAL, TOP 6-4
Arizona-01 (Before November 8 POLITICO Election Forecast rating: Moderate Republican): GOP Rep. David Schweikert trails Democrat Jevin Hodge by about 2,500 votes. That comes after Schweikert made gains late Saturday in Maricopa County, which includes the entire district. It will need the state to trend toward a “red shift” later in the count to continue. Arizona-06 (Few Republicans): Republican Juan Siscomani holds only a narrow lead over Democrat Kirsten Engel — about 1,400 votes — in a race that has narrowed significantly since Election Day, including Saturday, when Engel cut her raw vote deficit in half. It’s unclear whether the remaining votes in Pima County (Tucson) will help Engel close the gap completely. California-13 (Few Republicans): This looks like a nail: Republican John Duarte leads Democrat Adam Gray by 84 votes as of Saturday afternoon, with only 61 percent of ballots counted, according to the Associated Press. California-22 (Toss Up): Is it déjà vu for Congressman David Valadao? The California Republican was so far ahead of his Democratic challenger on election night in 2018 that the AP declared him the winner — only to retract the call when Valladao fell behind weeks later. This time, Valladão (who eventually returned to Congress after his 2020 win) leads Democrat Rudy Salas by 5 points, but that’s already down to 8 points Tuesday night. California-41 (Few Republicans): GOP Rep. Ken Calvert leads Democrat Will Rollins by about 2,100 votes in the Inland Empire, but it’s unclear how the late votes will break down. California-47 (Lean Democratic): Democratic Rep. Katie Porter leads Republican Scott Baugh by 3 percentage points as late-arriving ballots in Orange County helped expand what was extremely tight on Election Day. California-49 (Toss Up): Democratic Rep. Mike Levin has opened up a 5-point lead over Republican Brian Marriott in a race that is close to flipping into the Democratic column. Colorado-03 (Probably Republican): GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert is winning by about 1,100 votes over Democrat Adam Frisch. Fries must capitalize on Bobert’s advantage in the final votes to overcome her in the potential recount, which would occur if the two candidates finish within half a percentage point of each other (Bobert currently leads by 0, 4 units). New York-22 (Toss Up): Republican Brandon Williams is nearly 4,000 votes ahead of Democrat Francis Connolly, who is hoping the yet-to-be-counted ballots in Syracuse are enough to push him over the top. Oregon-06 (Toss Up): Democrat Andrea Salinas is 4,000 votes ahead of Republican Mike Erickson, with 79 percent of precincts reporting.
