As world leaders rush for climate action at a UN summit in Egypt, a study commissioned by Christian Aid has found that burning fossil fuels at the current rate will have a huge impact on the economies of African countries. The average impact on GDP per capita could be as much as 34%, the report says, while the impact on GDP growth will lead to an average reduction in rates of 20% by 2050 and a whopping 64% on average by 2100. The findings highlight the urgent need for tangible progress on climate finance for adaptation and loss and damage – key areas where developing countries will push richer polluting countries in Sharm el-Sheikh on Wednesday, which is finance day at Cop27. “Climate finance is not charity, it is climate justice,” said Nabeel Munir, Pakistani diplomat and chief negotiator for G77 developing countries at Cop27. Africa’s 54 countries account for 15% of the world’s population but contribute less than 4% of global warming CO2, compared to 27% from China, 15% from the US and 17% from the EU .However, it is the continent most affected by catastrophic climate change, such as rising sea levels and melting glaciers, as well as increasingly erratic and destructive extreme weather events such as drought, wildfires, floods and droughts. heat waves. The study analyzed the estimated GDP growth for 50 African countries if there was no global warming, compared to the best and worst case scenarios of 1.5C and 2.4C by 2100. Under current climate policies, the GDP growth of eight countries – Sudan, Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Chad, Djibouti and Nigeria – could be reduced by up to 75%. The most affected countries produce less than 0.43 tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) per person, in contrast to the US and Canada which produce 14 tonnes and Saudi Arabia 18 tonnes per person. In Sudan, where this year’s heavy rains and flash floods have affected more than 250,000 people in 15 of 18 provinces, economic growth could be hit by 84% under current global climate policies. The study did not take into account new climate adaptation measures, so the drop in GDP could be less severe. But it also doesn’t take into account the economic damage caused by extreme weather, so the decline could be even worse. “This analysis shows the huge impact that climate change will have on Africa’s economic growth, and these numbers may be conservative estimates,” said Marina Andrijevic, an economist at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Vienna and co-author of of study. . So far this year, more than 200,000 homes have been destroyed by floods and landslides in Nigeria, while 37 million people face starvation after four consecutive droughts in the Horn of Africa. A UN report released last week found that international adaptation funding is five to ten times lower than what developing countries need, and the gap is widening every year. Mohamed Andou, director of climate group Power Shift Africa, said the shocking economic forecasts should be a wake-up call. “The fact that African countries will suffer painful economic damage even if we limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius shows the need for a damage and loss fund to help those on the front lines of the climate crisis. “These countries have contributed the least to causing the problem, and yet they face such serious economic consequences that are created by others. This is why climate change is a matter of injustice.”
