There is no sign that a reduction is needed, the researchers said, putting further pressure on countries whose representatives are meeting at the Cop27 UN climate summit in Egypt to take real and swift action. Other scientists described the news as “bleak” and “deeply depressing”. Fossil fuel emissions chart A glimmer of hope comes from assessing emissions from forest destruction. These have been slowly declining over the past two decades, though largely due to planting more new trees rather than fewer fellings. When this reduction is taken into account, global carbon emissions are essentially flat since 2015. However, until emissions begin to decline, huge amounts of heat-trapping carbon dioxide are still being released into the atmosphere each year. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres made it clear to world leaders at Cop27 this week what this means: “We are in the fight of our lives and we are losing. Our planet is fast approaching tipping points that will make climate chaos irreversible. We are on a highway to climate hell with our foot on the gas,” he said. The Global Carbon Project (GCP) analysis uses multiple streams of year-to-date data to estimate emissions for 2022. It found that fossil fuel-related CO2 is set to increase by 1% to 36.6 billion tonnes, the highest ever. Higher burning of petroleum products is the biggest factor, mainly due to the continued recovery of international aviation after the pandemic. Continued emissions at this level will make 1.5C of global warming more likely than not in the next decade, the researchers said. Achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050, as many countries have promised, now requires an annual reduction comparable to the sharp drop in 2020 due to Covid-19 restrictions. Coal emissions will return to the all-time high seen in 2014, according to the analysis. But unlike in the past, this is not being led by China but by India and the European Union. Gas burning remained flat, but at the same record level seen in 2021. Emissions from China, the world’s biggest polluter, will fall by 1% in 2022, according to GCP, due to the country’s strict Covid restrictions and a collapse in the construction industry. The EU will also see a similar reduction because a 7% increase in carbon emissions was offset by a 10% reduction in CO2 from natural gas consumption after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In contrast, emissions in the US will increase by 1.5%, with increased flights largely responsible. India will have the largest increase, at 6%. This is due to higher carbon and oil emissions, and India now emits more than the EU as a whole – although per capita emissions remain much lower. “This year we see another increase in global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, when we need a rapid reduction,” said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter who led the study. “Cop27 leaders will need to take meaningful action if we are to have any chance of limiting global warming to close to 1.5C.” “We are a long way from where we need to go,” said Dr Glen Peters, GCP Fellow at the Center for International Climate Research (Cicero) in Norway. “Many countries, cities, companies and individuals have committed to reducing emissions. It’s a stark reminder that despite all this rhetoric, global fossil CO2 emissions are more than 5% higher than they were in 2015, the year of the Paris agreement. “There is clearly no sign of the reduction needed to limit climate change to close to 1.5C.” Professor Corinne Le Quéré, at the University of East Anglia, who was not involved in the study, noted that the average annual increase in emissions was 3% during the 2000s, but has fallen to a 0.5% increase in the last decade. “We have shown that climate policy works,” he said. “If governments respond by turbo-charging clean energy investment and planting, not cutting down trees, global emissions could quickly begin to fall.” A series of reports released ahead of Cop27 revealed how close the planet is to climate disaster, with no “credible pathway” to reducing carbon to 1.5C. With goals already agreed at previous summits, Cop27 hopes to lead to action, but disagreements over rich countries’ provision of climate finance are proving a major obstacle. The 2022 GCP analysis is published in the journal Earth System Science Data and was created by more than 100 scientists from 80 organizations around the world. Oceans and land absorb about half of humanity’s carbon emissions. However, the GCP found that this vital service was increasingly damaged by global warming, with CO2 uptake by land and oceans falling by 17% and 5% respectively over the past decade. GCP scientists are also concerned about future emissions. “With a further recovery in oil use expected in 2023, if coal or natural gas use remains stable or increases, then it is likely that global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels will continue to rise in 2023 without a concerted policy effort,” said Robbie Andrew . senior scholar at Cicero. Professor Vanesa Castán Broto, at the University of Sheffield, said: “The results of [analysis] they are dark. Carbon emissions continue to rise and if this continues, climate change will reach a very catastrophic stage within a decade.” “The report is deeply disappointing,” said Professor Mark Maslin, of University College London. “It sends a clear message to Cop27 leaders – the world must make significant cuts in global emissions by 2023 if we are to have any chance of keeping climate change to 1.5 degrees Celsius.”
