Mr. Trinto’s prediction for the next three years seems like a cup game, considering that the surprises of the first seven years in power include Donald Trump, the pandemic and the war in Europe. But this is a Prime Minister whose last two re-elections have allowed him to run minority governments without winning the popular vote, and who will be in power for 10 years until the next election. Any other party, with any other leader, would already have plans or plans to replace him. However, for the Liberal Party of Canada, the big challenge would be to find a replacement leader who is not considered a pale imitator – a Trindot Liberal who is not Justin Trindot. In profile, the obvious contender is Chrystia Freeland, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, who now delivers budgets, handles important policy dossiers, serves as prime minister on important occasions, and often stands by him for important announcements. But if the problem with Mr Trinto seeking re-election in 2025 is that Trinto was too much and Canadians are tired of the way he did things, it is hard to imagine that Mrs Freeland is seen as the wind of change. And despite Freeland’s weight in Mr Trinto’s administration – he led the NAFTA talks with the Trump administration, helped build a political peace with Ontario Prime Minister Doug Ford, and is in charge of the budget plan. for pandemic recovery – he is not a political commentator like the prime minister. Few people are. Mr. Trinto is a master of the crazy art of the talking point, while Ms. Freeland delivers great lectures. Even now, with his approvals worn lower, no one doubts Mr. Trinto’s ability to charm a room or deliver a series. And this is a riddle for the Liberals: It’s hard to find a better seller for Trindot’s Liberalism than Justin Trindot. And it will be difficult to find a Liberal leader who will not look like a Liberal Trint. There are some contenders with their own political charm. Innovation Minister François-Philippe Champagne can work in a room. Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly also has a talent. But they were both in Mr. Trinto’s team for seven years. Defense Secretary Anita Anand is younger and is considered by some to be a potential candidate for leadership, but by 2025, she will probably be Trudeau’s minister for six years. Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, has not joined Mr Trinto’s government, but it is unclear whether he can manage himself in the world of electoral politics – which is very different from any other. stage. And at this stage, when potential candidates for leadership are still confined to the quiet work of traveling to fundraisers and regional liberal meetings and making background plans, many of these potential candidates seem to have similar ideas on how to differentiate themselves. by Mr Trudeau – with a greater focus on the economy. Mrs Freeland, as finance minister, has a platform to do so – but she is very attached to Mr Trudeau’s overall government agenda. Mr. Champagne, Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry, is being placed as the Liberal businessman in the cabinet that will talk about industrial strategy, economic growth and jobs. Prominent Liberals have suggested that Ms. Anand look for a similar turf if she decides to run, although her current job as Secretary of Defense does not make it very easy. Mr. Carney, if he chose to run, would have a different challenge: he would run with heavy financial credentials, but he would have to convince voters that he was in touch with ordinary Canadians. This is a group of potential candidates who would aim to name the Liberals as a more financially focused party after a long tenure with a more left-leaning prime minister. This is something of a tradition in the Liberal Party that replaced Pierre Trinto with John Turner and Jean Cretien with Paul Martin – with less than spectacular election results. With Justin Trinto in office for seven years, but three years after the election, the riddle for the Liberal Party is not whether Mr Trinto will run again. It’s whether he can be replaced by someone that voters think is different. For subscribers: Receive exclusive political news and analysis by subscribing to Political information.
