The 46-year-old maths teacher was a staunch critic of Myanmar’s military, which seized power in a coup last year, and ran schools for the National Unity Government (NUG) – an administration set up in opposition to the military by ethnic leaders. activists and elected politicians the generals removed from office – in Magway Central District “He knew he could end up like this if he fell into the hands of the junta,” one of Saw Tun Moe’s colleagues told the Irrawaddy newspaper after his death in late October. “Even then, he took the risk and chose to teach at the NUG school.” Across Myanmar, men and women take similar risks. Angered by the military’s overthrow of Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government just 10 years after the start of a shaky transition to democracy, and horrified by a brutal crackdown on unarmed protesters in the immediate aftermath of the coup, Myanmar’s people have their own hands. Some, like Saw Tun Moe, went on strike and joined the NUG’s parallel education and health services, while others took up arms against the military, despite having very little training or expertise in weapons, including joining ethnic armed groups or fledgling militias. . known as the People’s Defense Forces (PDF). Thwarted in his attempt to consolidate his coup, senior general Min Aung Hlaing responded with even greater violence. The military resumed civilian executions, burned entire villages and bombed hospitals and schools, even an open-air concert – attacks that rights groups say may amount to crimes against humanity. The Project on Armed Conflict and Events Data (ACLED), a global crisis mapping group, estimates that as many as 27,683 people may have died in political violence in Myanmar since the military seized power in February last year. The group says it has recorded nearly 15,000 incidents of violence, including armed clashes and airstrikes, in the 22 months since the coup. Only in Ukraine, where Russia launched a bloody invasion on February 24, is the death toll higher.
“Junta may not survive until 2023”
Analysts say Myanmar has not seen violence on this scale since its struggle for independence in 1948. The conflict has spread to areas that had long been peaceful, such as Magway in Myanmar’s central plains. Known as the Dry Zone, the central plains are home to the majority of Myanmar’s Bamar-Buddhists. Until now, it has largely refrained from the kind of violence the military has unleashed against ethnic armed groups fighting for greater autonomy on the country’s borders. But now, some 647 PDFs are fighting the military in the Dry Zone alone, according to ACLED data. And these armed groups have turned to bombings, targeted killings and ambushes of military convoys. Under pressure, the military has created its own militias, called Phyu Saw Htee, and has launched a campaign of widespread arson, leveling homes and villages in an attempt to root out any resistance forces. The fighting is causing untold suffering, having also forced hundreds of thousands to flee their homes. For all its brutality, however, nearly two years after the coup, experts estimate that the military has firm control over just 17 percent of the country. “Armed resistance, bolstered by a widespread popular nonviolent movement, is now so pervasive that the military risks losing control of the ground wherever it is unable to commit resources to actively defend itself,” the Special Advisory Council on Myanmar , a group of rights experts. , he said in a September report (PDF). “From northern Kachin State to southern Tanintharyi and from western Chin bordering India to eastern Karenni State bordering Thailand, Myanmar’s military has not been deployed on so many fronts since the late 1940s.” The council, made up of former UN experts on Myanmar – Yanghee Lee, Marzuki Darusman and Chris Sidoti – went so far as to claim: “The junta may not survive until 2023 unless something dramatically changes the current trajectory.”
‘Are you only good at playing golf?’
Despite the situation on the ground, the international community has failed to engage the NUG in discussions on Myanmar’s future, relying on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which Myanmar joined in 1997, to deal with the crisis. But the 10-member regional bloc has so far avoided any formal engagement with the NUG, despite agreeing last year to a “peace plan” that calls for facilitating constructive dialogue in Myanmar. With ASEAN leaders meeting for a summit in the Cambodian capital Phnom Penh on Friday, activists are urging the group to get tough on Myanmar. “Cheers? You’re only going to be good for playing golf and making statements?” asked Debbie Stothard, founder of ALTSEAN, a rights group. “The crisis in Myanmar is one of the most serious threats to economic and regional stability, particularly human and economic security in the region. And yet ASEAN is doing neither one tenth of what the European Union did in response to the Ukraine crisis.” At the very least, activists say ASEAN should continue to bar Myanmar’s military from summits and extend that ban to working-level meetings. Most importantly, they call on ASEAN to work with the NUG and demand that the generals agree on specific actions and timelines to end hostilities. Anything less could allow the military to stall the process, giving him time to consolidate power before elections he has said will be held in 2023, experts said. Charles Santiago, a former Malaysian lawmaker and founder of ASEAN Parliamentary Human Rights (APHR), said the military should not be given the chance to dictate the terms of the vote. “This is something that has to stop,” he told Al Jazeera. “The heads of government must make a clear statement that ASEAN and the international community will not accept elections in Myanmar next year. This is something that must be done or ASEAN will be seen as colluding with the Myanmar junta.” Southeast Asian foreign ministers met in Jakarta to discuss the political crisis in Myanmar ahead of the ASEAN leaders’ summit in November [File: Handout/ Indonesian Foreign Ministry/ AFP] Observers see at least one bright spot as Cambodia is set to hand over the ASEAN chairmanship to Indonesia at the upcoming summit. Jakarta has favored engaging with the NUG, with or without the military’s permission, and Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi said ASEAN must face its problems head-on rather than sweep them under the carpet. But despite the lack of significant progress so far, some observers say ASEAN remains the key to dealing with the crisis in Myanmar. “The fact that ASEAN is a regional organization of which Myanmar is a member makes it the only body that has the legitimacy and, ideally, the willingness to deal with the issue,” said Lina Alexandra, an analyst at the Center for Strategy and International Studies. (CSIS). “Of course we do not deny (the) possibility of other international actors leading, but unfortunately so far we do not see any intention so far from them. No one wants their hands dirty and everyone is busy doing something else. Therefore, ASEAN should be the one to lead the process and then the other actors will follow to help ASEAN.”
