Instead, Democratic wins in the two western states would mean the Peach State runoff will determine whether they continue to control a 50-50 Senate — or actually pick up a seat. Democrats increasing their numbers this midterm election would not only defy historical precedent, but reverse this cycle’s narrative that voters disenchanted with the Democratic Party will flock to the GOP. “We don’t know,” said one Republican official involved in Senate races, commenting on how they believe the results will shake out in Nevada and Arizona. “We’re just waiting.” Both parties are privately optimistic about each state, theorizing how the rest of the vote tallies will work out in their favor. While Democrats have an early lead in Arizona and Republicans a slight advantage in Nevada, questions remain in both states about the number of ballots pending and whether they will shift the current margins. In a fundraising email Thursday afternoon, Arizona GOP candidate Blake Masters hinted at a Republican plan to potentially challenge the results. “We expect a contested path forward and legal battles to follow, and it is critical that we have the necessary resources to continue this fight,” Masters wrote, explaining that he expected to prevail once “all legitimate votes are counted.” Another round of results from Arizona’s Maricopa County is expected to tighten the race between Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly and Masters. Republican projections show Masters, who on Thursday fell by 5 points, will need nearly 60 percent of the remaining votes to win. Masters enjoyed a late surge after trailing Kelly throughout the fall, though he was outspent on television in the general election by a nearly 2-to-1 margin, according to AdImpact. Masters’ path to victory looks less certain than Nevada Republican Adam Laxalt, who for months has been locked in a tight race with Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto. “Democrats remain in a strong position to protect and expand our majority,” said David Bergstein, a spokesman for the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee. Emma Brown, Kelly’s campaign manager, noted that it was clear from early results that the incumbent senator had received support not only from Democrats, but also from independents and Republicans. “While we always expected this race to get closer as additional ballots are counted, we remain confident we will win,” Brown said. Inside the Capitol, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, whose chances to retake the majority leader’s office fall on the results in Arizona, Nevada and Georgia, said he was just “watching and waiting” like everyone else . Republicans believe uncounted Election Day ballots in Nevada and returns from rural areas in both Republican-leaning states will help them sweep Arizona there as well. “There are still a lot of good votes out there that need to be counted for the Republicans, and we’re optimistic in Nevada and optimistic in Arizona,” said one Republican strategist involved in the races. Republican and Democratic caucuses had legal and voter protection staff in the two states as counting continued Thursday. Sen. Rick Scott, chairman of the National Republican Senate Committee, burned the phones calling donors Wednesday and Thursday, preparing for a grueling Georgia runoff. The NRSC is getting a jump on the TV ad wars, launching its first spot Thursday afternoon as it prepares to send out teams of field personnel by the end of the week. Democrats, meanwhile, on Thursday announced a $7 million plan for the runoff. The Republican caucus is under intense pressure to secure a victory in Georgia, and not just because the GOP lost two Senate seats in a January 2021 runoff election. On Tuesday, Republicans lost a seat in Pennsylvania when Democrat John Fetterman emerged victorious against Dr. Mehmet Oz. And they hit a potential pickup opportunity when Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan trounced Don Bolduc in New Hampshire, a seat Scott and other conservatives said the GOP could win. JD Vance, a Republican who won a competitive Senate race in Ohio on Tuesday, sent a message to supporters Thursday asking for money for Herschel Walker in the Georgia runoff. Walker faces Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock. Control of the House also remains shaky as the predicted Republican red wave there also failed to materialize. Democrats, who performed better than expected in House races across the country, are still holding out hope of holding onto the chamber — and they got more good news late Wednesday. Democrat Yadira Caraveo won a newly created swing seat in suburban Denver after Republican Barbara Kirkmeyer conceded, as GOP Rep. Yvette Herrell conceded to Democrat Gabe Vasquez in southern New Mexico in a seat that turned bluer in redistricting. And in one of the potential twists of the cycle, Rep. Lauren Boebert is trailing Democrat Adam Frisch in a Colorado race that has seen little outside spending. Unknown West Coast races in Nevada, California, Arizona, Washington and Oregon are among those holding control of the chamber for the next two years. Most California battleground races have less than 60 percent of the vote counted, due to the state’s reliance on mail-in ballots. A cluster of these unknown California tribes could be decisive. Democratic front-runners Katie Porter and Mike Levin are slim in their Southern California seats, and vulnerable Republican Rep. Ken Calvert won a narrow lead Wednesday after Democratic challenger Will Rollins in early counts. Republican John Duarte edged Democratic Assemblyman Adam Gray for an open seat in the Central Valley. On the East Coast, Maine’s 2nd District is set to go to a runoff next week, the state’s secretary of state confirmed Wednesday. But Rep. Jared Golden declared victory at a news conference Thursday morning in Lewiston, citing his 4-point lead, with all but a few precinct reports and third-party analyzes showing he was likely to win votes from the ranked independent. . edit, process. “I am honored that the people of Maine’s 2nd District have chosen me to represent them in Washington for another two-year term,” Golden said. “Although Bruce Poliquin is not yet willing to concede, at this point the bottom line is undeniably clear.” A second qualifying round would equal a repeat of 2018, when Golden defeated Poliquin in the qualifying round. Maine’s secretary of state said results should be expected by the end of Tuesday. Golden, who ran a campaign that distanced himself from Biden and the rest of the party, has been targeted by Republicans as they seek to reclaim the seat. Since the beginning of the year, the Congressional Leadership Fund and the NRCC have poured more than $10 million combined into ads to put Golden as a Biden endorsement. The wait has left both parties on edge as the fate of both chambers of Congress remains uncertain two days after the midterm elections. And in the Senate, each side is bracing for the reality that it could be right back to where it was two years ago: Georgia decides everything. In a memo released Thursday, Warnock’s campaign manager, Quentin Fulks, sought to remind reporters and donors how prepared Warnock is for the upcoming run-off — that he “knows how to win” one after doing so in January of 2021. “Reverend Warnock is applying the principles of this successful election and is already implementing the strategy to be successful on December 6,” Fulks wrote, noting that Warnock has outperformed President Joe Biden in urban and suburban counties, while Walker trailed Donald Trump. Kelly Hooper, Ally Mutnick, Jeremy White, Jessica Piper, Madison Fernandez and Burgess Everett contributed to this report.
