9:52 a.m.: Seattle sends right-handed reliever Erik Swanson and prospect Adam Macko to Blue Jays in trade, Divish reports. 9:49 a.m.: TSN’s Scott Mitchell tweets that the Blue Jays will get bullpen help in exchange for Hernandez. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports that high-profile trade prospect Chris Flexen is not part of that deal. 9:41 a.m.: The Mariners and Blue Jays agree to a trade sending right fielder Teoscar Hernandez from Toronto to Seattle, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan ( Twitter link ). Hernandez, who turned 30 a month ago, will give the Mariners a top slugger who has put up a strong .283/.333/.519 line with 73 home runs and 71 doubles in 1,337 plate appearances in the past. three seasons. Hernandez has been a Statcast favorite since his big league debut, regularly posting league-leading exit velocity and slugging percentages. That was no different in 2022, when Statcast ranked him in the 94th percentile or better in hard-hit percentage, average exit velocity, maximum exit velocity, barrel rate and expected slugging percentage. It should be noted that this penchant for elite contact plus power output from Hernandez comes at a cost. While he has somewhat scaled back his once-high totals, Hernandez was still wild in 28.4% of his plate appearances last season. He got his strikeout rate up to 24.9% in 2021, so there is perhaps hope for some further gains, but as of now that number is outliers compared to the rest of his career. Meanwhile, his walk rate has consistently hovered between six and seven percent over the last few seasons — just below the league average. In addition to tremendous power potential, Hernandez possesses deceptive speed. He’s tallied just 24 steals (in 32 attempts) over the last three seasons, including just six in 2022, but Hernandez’s sprint speed ranks in the 84th percentile of MLB players, per Statcast. With slightly longer bases expected to perhaps push the run a bit more in 2023, Hernandez is among several players who could potentially start taking off with a bit more frequency. Hernandez is also known for having one of the strongest throwing arms in the game. Despite that speed and arm strength, however, he draws consistently below-average grades for his glove in right field. Defensive Runs Saved and Outa Above Average have tied him as the negative defender in each of the past four seasons. In 2022, he compiled a minus-3 DRS, minus-5 OAA and minus-3.1 Final Zone Rating. Even if his speed and arm don’t translate to plus right field, however, Hernandez has been a well-above-average all-around player over the past few years when looking at the sum of his parts. Both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference peg him at eight wins above replacement over his last 324 games. Those 324 games have spanned three seasons, though one was the shortened 2020 campaign. Generally, Hernandez has avoided major injuries. He missed three weeks this season with a strained strain and is out for 2021 due to a positive Covid test (plus a few games on the paternity list). Overall, however, he has played in 84.3% of his team’s possible games since 2020. Barring an extension, Hernandez will be a one-year rental for the Mariners — and a relatively expensive one at that. Hernandez will reach six years of service in 2023 and will be released next winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a sizable $14.1MM salary for him this season. Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said at last week’s GM meetings that he sought at least one outfield upgrade this winter, if not two. Hernandez should slot into right field alongside center fielder Julio Rodriguez, but his presence in Seattle raises a few additional questions. The club chose not to make a qualifying offer to Mitch Haniger, for example, and while the acquisition of Hernandez doesn’t outright rule out Haniger’s return to the corners, today’s trade makes a reunion inherently less likely. The Mariners will have to determine if they are comfortable with a combination of former top prospects Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis and Taylor Trammell in left field. Jesse Winker is another left field/DH option, though as of yesterday, the Mariners were discussing trade packages involving Winker. It’s easy enough to envision the team, with some help from relievers Dylan Moore and Sam Haggerty, holding down the fort at the corners and at DH, but further additions shouldn’t be ruled out. The Mariners, after all, are in win-now mode. And even with Hernandez on board, they have plenty of payroll. Hernandez’s acquisition is a net addition of about $12.7 million to the payroll, as Swanson was projected by Swartz to be paid $1.4 million. They’re projected for a $143.5 million payroll after the trade, and that’s well short of the $162 million cap hit they hit in 2018. A return to the playoffs likely boosted revenue a bit, and MLB has agreed to several lucrative streaming deals that offer each team significant amounts of money within five years of the previous payroll record. Going over the Blue Jays side of the deal, they would simultaneously add a much-needed power arm to the bullpen and drop that aforementioned (and approximate) $12.7M in payroll. They’re still projected for what would be a record Opening Day payroll in the $176 million range, but the trade gives them more flexibility while adding a critical piece to the relief mix. Swanson, originally acquired by the Mariners in the trade that sent James Paxton to the Yankees, has struggled as a starter but has broken out as the ultimate force in the Seattle bullpen. Swanson’s 3.31 ERA, 24.3% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate over 35 1/3 innings during the 2021 season was a step in that direction, but just last season became a dominant force in the late innings. Swanson’s 2022 campaign resulted in 53 2/3 innings of 1.68 ERA ball with a whopping 34% strikeout rate against just 4.9% walks. Overall, since being established in 2021, Swanson owns a 2.33 ERA in 89 innings of relief — a mark largely supported by non-fielding metrics (2.59 FIP, 2.87 SIERA). Swanson is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, so some may be concerned about his transition from a friendly setting at T-Mobile Park to the homer-happy confines of Toronto’s Rogers Centre, but the fact is that very few of the flies balls he delivers are hit with authority. Among the 385 pitchers with at least 80 innings over the past two seasons, Swanson has produced infield popups at the sixth-best rate in MLB. Swanson has also been a god on the mound in 2022, ranking near the top of the league in average exit velocity (98th percentile), slugging percentage (96th), “expected” ERA and wOBA (97th). . “Expected” slugging percentage (94th), total strikeout percentage (96th) and strikeout rate (93rd). He may not be a household name, but for the 2022 season at least, Swanson can legitimately claim to be one of MLB’s most dominant relievers. Unlike Hernandez, who will be a free agent next winter, Swanson is a relatively long-term piece for the Blue Jays. With more than three years of Major League service under his belt, he’s checkable through the 2025 season. And, because his start has been of the late-blooming variety, he hasn’t produced the kind of long-term record that will reward him flawlessly in his first trip to the arbitration process. The Jays will almost certainly pay Swanson less over the next three seasons than they would Hernandez in 2023 alone. It’s the same timeline as free agent share closer Jordan Romano, who is also controlled through 2023. Swanson looks set to serve as Romano’s primary setup option, though he’ll be joined by veteran Yimi Garcia, Anthony Bass, Adam Cimber and Tim Mayza in what already looks like a deeper and more formidable relief corps. More to come.
