After a difficult four years under Donald Trump, China hoped Biden would ease the turmoil. But relations have sunk to their lowest point since the countries normalized relations in 1979 as they charted a new course against a common adversary in the Soviet Union. “More than four decades later, in the absence of a similar common strategic adversary, growing competition and an intensifying array of security, technological and ideological differences are fraying the relationship and risk taking the US and China down a long, cold path.” said Paul Haenle of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who was a China adviser to George W Bush and Barack Obama. The US is concerned about issues such as China’s military activity around Taiwan, its rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal and its refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Beijing accuses the US of encouraging pro-independence forces in Taiwan, creating quasi-quad alliances to counter China and trying to contain China with advanced chip-related export controls. Recommended Biden said the leaders will outline their “red lines” to see if there is room to resolve the differences. The two men have spoken five times since Biden became president, but the efforts have been largely fruitless. US officials hope their first face-to-face meeting as leaders will change that. “There’s just no substitute for that kind of leader-to-leader communication in navigating and managing such a consequential relationship,” said Jake Sullivan, national security adviser. However, the hurdles remain high. US officials say Xi has not followed through on his comments to Biden a year ago that China would join nuclear weapons talks. It is also hard to imagine how either side could reach any compromise on Taiwan, which has emerged as the most contentious issue in US-China relations. Asked this week if he intended to tell Xi that the US would defend Taiwan against an unprovoked attack by China – a statement he has made four times – Biden said: I will have that conversation with him. Evan Medeiros, a China expert at Georgetown University, said Biden wanted to stabilize relations and particularly “prevent a downward spiral” in Taiwan. He said Biden will try to reassure Xi that he is not changing the “One China” policy, under which the U.S. recognizes Beijing as China’s sole government but recognizes — without endorsing — the Chinese position that Taiwan it is part of China. China does not want a new cold war, but we have many demands from the US But Medeiros warned that the deep animosity between the two countries reduced the chances of success. “This one summit will not save or redefine relations. At best, it can slow the deterioration.” Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at the German Marshall Fund, said Beijing had signaled it did not want relations to deteriorate. “Maybe that gave Biden hope that, given our language that we want to put a floor on this relationship, our goals overlap,” he said. “Well, maybe we can make progress. But there is also a real possibility that this meeting will have similar results to previous meetings.” A Chinese diplomat said there was a chance the meeting would help relations because “both sides are making efforts” and some issues could be resolved. He said China hoped the US would issue long-delayed visas for Chinese students and that Beijing could make it easier for foreign academics and businessmen to visit China. Chinese analysts said some exchanges between officials, which Beijing suspended after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August, could resume. “China does not want a new cold war, but we have many requests from the US,” said Zhu Feng, an international relations expert at Nanjing University. But beyond some low-hanging fruit, Chinese experts were deeply pessimistic. “In the past, security and economics were separate pillars in the bilateral relationship,” said Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, who said economic issues are now subordinated to political and security concerns. security. Dennis Wilder, a former top CIA analyst on China now at Georgetown University, said Biden had “overreached” in balancing China and needed to step up efforts to strengthen engagement. “I’m not saying they haven’t done good things, like Aukus [the US, UK and Australia defence pact], strengthening relations with Japan and South Korea and with countries in the Pacific,” Wilder said. “But you have to deal with the balancing act. Otherwise, you’re just headed down a path to mutually assured destruction.” Recommended Wang Chong, a US expert at Zhejiang University of International Studies, said the meeting could help stabilize ties, after US midterm elections and Xi securing a third five-year term as leader of the Chinese Communist Party. “The Chinese Party Congress and the US midterms are over. Both countries have more certainty about domestic issues. A meeting would have a positive effect on easing tensions,” Wong said. While Democrats did better than expected in the midterm elections, Republicans are still likely to take control of the House, which will give more power to GOP lawmakers who want Washington to be tougher on China. It also remains unclear whether Xi has confidence that Biden has the ability to ease tensions, even if that is his goal. “The Chinese don’t see Biden as an extremely powerful president. They think he is too worried about the Republicans and they see him as soft on China,” said one US-China expert. “There is also no certainty that he will be in power for more than two years, so it is a question mark as to whether Beijing will continue to invest in him.” Follow Demetri Sevastopulo on Twitter
