Such decisions by countless people like Tang will determine the course not only of China’s population but also of the world’s population, which the United Nations says is projected to reach 8 billion on Tuesday. Tang, 39, said many of his married friends have only one child and, like him, are not planning another. Younger people aren’t even interested in getting married let alone having babies, he said. The high cost of childcare is a major deterrent to having children in China, as many families in an increasingly mobile society cannot rely on grandparents who may live far away for help. “Another reason is that many of us get married very late and it’s hard to get pregnant,” Tang said. “I think marrying late will definitely have an impact on births.” China has been preoccupied for decades with the prospect of unanticipated population growth and imposed a strict one-child policy from 1980 to 2015 to keep numbers under control. But now the United Nations expects China’s population to start shrinking from next year, when India is likely to become the world’s most populous country. China’s fertility rate of 1.16 in 2021 was below the OECD standard of 2.1 for a constant population and among the lowest in the world. The anxiety of the coronavirus pandemic and China’s strict measures to eradicate it may also have had a profound impact on many people’s desire to have children, demographers say. New births in China are set to fall to record lows this year, demographers say, falling below 10 million from 10.6 million last year – already 11.5% lower than in 2020. Beijing last year began allowing couples to have up to three children, and the government said it was working to achieve an “appropriate” birth rate. The story continues OLD, NEW PROBLEMS For planners, a shrinking population creates a whole new set of problems. “We expect the aging population to increase very quickly. This is a very important situation that China is facing, different from 20 years ago,” said Shen Jianfa, a professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. The proportion of the population over 65 is now around 13%, but is set to rise sharply. A shrinking workforce faces an increasing burden of caring for the growing number of seniors. “It’s going to be very high for a few years,” Sen said of the percentage of seniors in the population. “That’s why the country needs to prepare for the coming aging.” Worried by the prospect of an aging society, China is trying to encourage couples to have more children with tax breaks and cash subsidies, as well as more generous maternity leave, medical insurance and housing subsidies. But demographers say the measures are not enough. They cite the high cost of education, low wages and notoriously long work hours, along with frustration over COVID restrictions and the overall state of the economy. A key factor is job prospects for young people, said Stuart Gietel Basten, a professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. “Why have more babies when the people you have can’t get jobs?” (Reporting by Thomas Suen and Farah Master; Editing by Robert Birsel)
