Here’s what you need to know about how CNN makes projections:
What is a CNN “key race”? Who decides that? “Key Race” is a subjective term. Most political observers generally agree that only a subset of races are truly competitive in November, and those are generally considered the key races. Political parties spend more money on these races. Journalists spend more time covering them.
Of the 35 Senate races on the 2022 ballot, Inside Elections’ election forecasters saw three as true flips and another four going Republican or Democratic.
The Nineteenth House matches are real upsets, though many others could end up in close contention. Five ruler races are twists. See Inside Elections scores for Senate, House and governor.
Key races can also be races that may be less competitive but have broader implications or have particularly noteworthy candidates.
What factors help CNN get views? Using a combination of many factors, including current and past election results, real-time exit polling, recent polls, voter registration data and more, CNN’s decision office is often able to reliably project that a candidate has received enough support to win. It’s a projection, though, and not the final word. Government officials and courts have the official say.
Can CNN air a race with no votes? This is a project that CNN takes very seriously. Based on past election results, exit polls, recent polls, early voter turnout and other factors, it is sometimes possible to see that a particular candidate will win a race. If there is any possibility of an upset, CNN will refrain from showing the game.